Polls Which Assume Larger Dem Proportions Give Obama Wide Lead; Otherwise Not

| 16 Comments

Both Gallup and Rasmussen daily tracking polls show a much tighter race.

"Surveys giving Sen. Obama a large and growing lead tend to assume that a growing proportion of voters are Democrats, and a shrinking percentage Republicans. They also point to a big increase in turnout, particularly among voters under the age of 30.
...
Pollster Scott Rasmussen weights current polls so that Democrats outnumber Republicans by a 39.3% to 33% margin, while pollster John Zogby adjusts polls so that Democrats account for around 38% of the electorate and Republicans, 36%.
...
"What troubles me is when I see some of my colleagues have 27% of the respondents that are Republicans. That's just not America, period," says Mr. Zogby, whose polls have shown Sen. Obama with a lead ranging from two to six points this month.
...
"How do you know that's right? I mean, they're making up numbers," says Susan Pinkus, who conducts the Los Angeles Times-Bloomberg poll, which isn't weighted.
...
"It's more art than science in many cases. They're very difficult decisions to make," says Neil Newhouse, a Republican pollster who conducts the NBC News-Wall Street Journal poll.

If Mr. Obama is so good and BushMcCain is so bad, and there are two wars and a financial meltdown and a recession and Osama is still on the loose...

...why isn't he blowing McCain out of the water in every. single. one. of these polls? It ought to make Democrat voters wonder (especially why CBS New York Times, LA Times and ABC polls show Obama winning so breezily)

Maybe the following post is one (more) reason why.

16 Comments

Because he's black-simple as that. If he wasn't half black he would be permanently in the high double digits by now. But that is an extra load he has to fight against.An amazing candidate-intelligent,thoughtful,well-grounded,calm and tough.

Christina,

With respect, knee-jerk shouts of "racism!" don't hold water.

Let's talk about identity politics for a second. Obama has won close to 90% of the black vote during the primaries. When Mitt Romney won over 90% of the vote in Utah, pundits correctly identified identity voting. Why not here with Obama? Because it's politically incorrect.

While the Bradley Effect may come into play, I think the reverse Bradley Effect is just as likely.

While Barack Obama may be intelligent and calm, he is not grounded in the America I know and love, nor is he grounded in the values most Americans hold dear.

The fact is that Obama's RADICAL agenda for America is what is keeping people at bay. He and the Dems have been handed this election, gift-wrapped with a bright blue bow, and yet Americans are hesitant about Obama's indifference towards innocent babies, his socialist plan to redistribute the wealth, his shady friends, his shady dealings in Chicago, etc.

With reference to your comment that:-"While Barack Obama may be intelligent and calm, he is not grounded in the America I know and love, nor is he grounded in the values most Americans hold dear...."

You can say he is not grounded in the values you know and love-that is absolutely fair comment- but in no way can you assume to speak for what"most Americans hold dear"

I am American and he most definitely represents what I hold dear about my country,and what I thought was lost forever.And a large part of the country feels this too.Which is why this election is so fascinating and dynamic.

You and your ideas are not America,any more than I and my ideas are. We are all part of this country.

As alarming as it is for you to think of Obama becoming President,that is exactly how I feel about McCain/Palin doing so.

Christina,

That's fair. You feel that Obama shares beliefs you hold dear. Do you mind if I ask which beliefs those are?

Would you agree that it is at least fair to say that roughly half of America does not share Obama's beliefs or vision for the future of America (just as roughly half do not share that of McCain)?

Yes I would agree that roughly half of America doesn't share Obama's beliefs.

For me,especially after the Bush years the most important thing about Obama is that he doesn't see the world in terms of black and white,in terms of'good guys and bad guys'in terms of demonising people and cultures who experience the world in different ways.

There is a sort of emotional maturity about him that I find very compelling.Maybe it's a result of his unusual upbringing and the experience of being neither fully white nor fully black but he seems to me to be a man who has always been curious about the world.He seems wise beyond his years. An'old soul' as my gran used to say !

I think the most important aspect for me is his attitude to foreign relations and insistence that it is important to open dialogue with other nations,rather than maintain the'if you're not with us you're against us'attitude that's been prevalent in recent years. The world has become so intertwined now,so much smaller than in our grandparents times-I don't think we can act as if we're not interconnected and dependent on each other anymore.

We fell right into Bin Laden's lap by our reaction to 9.11 He wanted us to start a Holy War,he wanted to radicalise the Middle East against the West,so he dug a trap,and we fell right into it.
I cannot imagine Obama falling for
such an obvious ploy.

Sorry-this is getting awfully long!

Can I ask,apart from the abortion issue,what are the beliefs about America that you think you and Obama don't share?

Thanks for your thoughtful response. I'll try to do the same on my end.

In no particular order (the following is just a sampling)...

I believe there is no greater issue--more than the sanctity of human life--than the issue of eternal life. I believe the Bible is true, which means I believe Jesus when He said that He is the way, the truth, and the life, and no one is saved except through Him. Obama says he thinks there are many ways to heaven and he even said he isn't sure of his salvation. While his faith is between him and God, it is important for Americans to know that when push comes to shove, after a president has listened to wise counsel from many viewpoints, where does he turn to for guidance? I simply don't believe Barack Obama is a Christian and his views on abortion support this assertion. Faith may not matter to some people, but faith is the most important thing to me.

I believe America IS a great nation and that Americans are always striving to be even better. I am proud of my nation as it is today, while I hope for even better things to come tomorrow. From his statements, Obama seems to believe that America WAS a great nation which desperately needs TO BE better.

I believe America must be Israel's greatest ally. As a Christian, my belief is reinforced by Biblical mandate. As an American, it is reinforced by the political reality that Israel is a tiny democracy surrounded by sworn enemies who vow to wipe her off the face of the Earth. Obama is endorsed by Hamas and leaders in Al Qaeda--I'm not making this up--and stood up for Israel for precisely one day...He said he believed in an "undivided" Jerusalem, then quickly backtracked the next day and said he didn't know this was code language for supporting Israeli over Palestinian interests. That makes Obama either naive or a liar; either way, it's bad stuff.

This is getting ridiculously long; sorry! I'll stop now. Should I put together a post on my blog? Here is a post I put up a long time ago, but I could add a lot to it: http://dontdrinkthekingswine.com/2008/09/03/ten-reasons-why-im-not-voting-for-obama/

We are a microcosm of the world you and I.

I just read your blog and I have to say I disagree fundamentally with almost all your points.Fundamentally,in the core of my being,just as you feel them.

So the point is that whether by geography,culture,upbringing or personality we are totally opposite in our views. Can we still communicate with each other without contempt or negating each other's reality or experience of the world?

Underneath everything I think human beings all feel the same desire for connecting,for being at one with other humans,all feel the same when they see a beautiful sunset or a baby being born,all have the same fears,the same insecurities.

Which comes back to why I support Obama.I don't think he is perfect(in fact I think some on the left might be disappointed in how mainstream some of his policies will be).
He is a Christian (although his Christianity might take a different form than your own) In fact his Christianity is not a plus-point for me since I am an atheist.

But it is his recognition that there are numerous ways of looking at the world and that you can't deal with the world's problems without understanding how things look through other peoples' eyes that is at base why I find him so refreshing.

Kennedy took a very strong approach during the Cuban Missile Crisis and was right to do so.. But it was a combination of this with his understanding of history,of the Russian psyche and in particular of Kruschev's psychology that ultimately averted disaster.I think McCain's militaristic stance and Palin's simplistic and knee-jerk attitudes would not have averted nuclear war.

I saw a post on a pro-Obama blog recently that summed it up for me: Paraphrasing the Jack Nicholson character in 'As Good as it Gets' the poster said 'Obama makes me want to be a better person.This feeling was echoed by so many other posters-In my adult lifetime I've never experienced a politician that could evoke that sort of feeling in his supporters-the desire to be a better person.

Obama is no doubt an imperfect human being like the rest of us. But he is bringing the concepts of decency and idealism and thoughtfulness back into politics. It has been there before,but has gone underground in recent years.That is the America I and so many others love and yearn for.

If you were born in my shoes you would likely be a happy agnostic or atheist. If I was born in yours I would be a happy Christian. If we were both born in Pakistan we would probably be happy Muslims.

Point is-how do we live in a world that includes all of us?

Briefly, absolute truth is knowable and does not depend on experience or heritage. Despite the experience/environment driven polytheistic assertion, you still appeal to an absolute principle related to "connecting" or unity - a contradiction. It is through truth that unity occurs. And, as an atheist, you suggest that there are standards for decency and ways for individuals to be "better persons". This suggests you hold to a set of absolute principles that enable you to assess the character of McCain and Obama. I suggest that you consider the ideal "life is intrinsically valuable" - this is a principle that Obama rejects.

Finally, Robert Mugabe, the fascist Zimbabwe dictator, invoked the same feelings you have for Obama in his supporters. He was looked at as a savior. As you're aware, Mugabe has destroyed his country and remains in power via intimidation and election fraud. This is not to say that Obama is a Mugabe but rather that you cannot trust your feeling, they are not an adequate basis for evaluating a candidate for president.

Christina wrote: “I just read your blog and I have to say I disagree fundamentally with almost all your points. Fundamentally, in the core of my being, just as you feel them.”

First off, thank you for reading my blog! Blogging should involve the exchange of ideas and exposure to views you may find abhorrent. I hope you feel welcome to visit often and weigh in whenever you’re able! My blog is NOT intended to be an echo chamber or an exercise in groupthink. Thoughtful differing perspectives are always welcome.

You also wrote: “[I]t is [Obama’s] recognition that there are numerous ways of looking at the world and that you can't deal with the world's problems without understanding how things look through other peoples' eyes that is at base why I find him so refreshing.”

It is important to look through other people's eyes. But when you do this and see evil, are you willing to call it evil and confront it as such? When Islamic terrorists strap bombs to mentally handicapped women and send them into a marketplace in Iraq and detonate the bombs by remote, that’s evil. When Saddam Hussein massacred thousands of his own people because they were of a different religious sect, that’s evil. When a baby is delivered part-way and then is dismembered and its skull is crushed and its brain is sucked out, that is evil. So while we must understand all viewpoints, that does not mean they are all morally equal. That an individual has sincerely held beliefs does not necessarily make them right. Hitler and his ilk had sincerely held beliefs, as does the KKK, but we would agree that those beliefs are patently wrong.

You wrote that “Obama makes me want to be a better person.” A lot of people apparently feel this way about Obama and I’m curious to know why. Are you saying that Obama is a better person? Is he better than the rest of us? Just better than the average politician? What basis is there for this belief? Has he done anything in his life that leads to these conclusions? Aside from lofty rhetoric—which is not unique in politics—how is Obama any different? I’m not trying to attack you; I really want to know.

Finally, you wrote: “If you were born in my shoes you would likely be a happy agnostic or atheist. If I was born in yours I would be a happy Christian. If we were both born in Pakistan we would probably be happy Muslims.”

As plb said, geography does not mandate adherence to a particular faith (though some political regimes do). More Muslims have converted to Christianity over the past decade than at any other time in human history. 16 THOUSAND Muslim converts per day, 6 MILLION per year! Don’t take my word for it; Sheikh Ahmad Al Qatani, a leading Saudi cleric, gives these stats and puts most of the blame on courageous people like Zakaria Botros, an Egyptian Coptic priest whose satellite television show is watched by 50 million Muslims PER DAY (more here: http://dontdrinkthekingswine.com/2008/09/11/al-dalil-we-al-burhan/). A spiritual revolution is underway throughout North Africa, the Middle East and Central Asia and despite intense persecution (often death), a record number of Muslims are now Christians.

The gospel of Jesus Christ is able to transcend boundaries drawn by nation-states, languages, and cultures. It may sound cheesy, but I feel that Jesus makes me want to be a better person, in every possible way. No other human being has the same effect on me.

I don't know what's going on, but the link I provided above is somehow redirecting to the wrong post. The website is correct. Please cut and paste the site: http://dontdrinkthekingswine.com/2008/09/11/al-dalil-we-al-burhan/

If I find out that there is foul play going on here, I will consider pursuing legal action.

Hello again.
I always read different blogs and news sources because I can’t see the point in only reading things that support what you already believe.

I like most of Obama’s policies I like his intelligence,his subtlety and his discipline,I like his wide experience of the big world and of living in different cultures. I have liked the way he’s run his campaign (apart from the famous and patronizing’Sweetie’ remark which I thought was awful.) He seems to have a loving family and people find him a good listener and easy to work with. Old-fashioned I may be,but I think he has manners! So if I like most of his policies,like his worldview,,like what I see of the person,that seems a pretty good basis for supporting him!
That doesn’t mean I might not be wrong-just that the current evidence leads me to choose him over Sen McCain.
Every now and then someone comes into public life who has this sort of inspirational effect on people. It is as if they put people in touch with their ‘bigger selves’.And that is Obama’s gift-that he’s invoked in many people a possibility of a bigger,more inclusive,more honourable America. This might turn out to be a fantasy-he might be a total disappointment but it is heartening to me that so many people at least aspire to this

I think the religious-conversion thing is a bit of a red herring. Fact is there have been many gods in many cultures and most people tend to believe in the god of their culture and time..100 years ago I would have been a Christian because even in America then there weren’t many places a person could have been an atheist.
But I like your remark about Jesus making you want to be a better person. I think anything that makes us want to be better people is a good thing.

I can’t say I really believe in evil-at least not as some disembodied quality-it doesn’t feel like a particularly useful concept. I think humans have a dark side of their unconscious(some more than others) and that unprincipled,manipulating and unconscious people can use this to cause us to do the most horrific things.It is so easy to rabble-rouse,to make the’other’ into an enemy,to dehumanise people so that they can be terrorised or scorned with impunity. I don’t know if some people are born ‘without a heart‘-it seems very possible-but I do know that if you look at the horrible early lives of people like Hitler or Saddam then their later lives have a sort of ghastly internal logic. This is in no way an excuse for them.

My hatred of Islamic fundamentalism is probably equal to your own. But that doesn’t excuse my own country’s sins.

With regard to the abortion issue I think it is a mistake to assume people who support choice are’pro-abortion’ I am pro-choice but that doesn’t mean I would,for instance, have an abortion if I knew I was having a Down’s Syndrome baby. But I think birth control and legalised abortion have liberated women from milennia of oppression and suffering and that they have a right to dominion over their own bodies.

Late abortion I don’t agree with (apart from serious health risks to the mother but neither does Obama (apart from the mother’s health issue.) Do I think abortion is the perfect answer-no,not at all. The perfect answer is if unwanted pregnancies don’t happen in the first place.

But I am still interested in my original question:- There is you,a strong Christian,anti-abortion,right-of-centre-person and here is me a strong atheist,pro–choice,left-of-centre-person,both probably thinking the other is completely mistaken in their views. Plus 6 billion other people all thinking their worldview is the right one.
How do we respectfully share this world?

I had intended to give you the last word (and still will, if you want to respond to this), but since you asked that last question again, I will try to answer it.

Though this may not be an answer you enjoy hearing, I believe the simple truth is that Christian principles allow us to share this world best. Who else but Jesus demonstrated unqualified love for His enemies? He spoke truth to power but spoke it in love. He lived such a perfect balance of resolve and reserve, leadership and service. He forgave His enemies, even LOVED His enemies, dying for EVERYONE, including those who choose to reject Him. He reached out to the broken-hearted, the defenseless, the marginalized, the poor, the downtrodden masses.

I believe with all my heart that wherever true Christianity is found, people experience true freedom. True freedom is not given to us by man, so it cannot be taken away by man. Rather, it comes from Christ alone and is available to anyone who asks, equal opportunity in the clearest sense. This freedom gives hope to those suffering in unimaginable ways, hope that is not contingent upon one's color of skin, gender, financial status, etc.

(I apologize if the preceding came across as preachy. I love Jesus more and more and whenever I have an opportunity to express it, it rushes out of me in a torrent of emotion. Thanks for reading this far!)

I still don't understand...John, your SISTER does have a good argument for being pro-life because she's "walked the walk" and helped take care of an "unwanted" or "unable to be taken care of" child. But all of you who "talk the talk" and have never helped ease the pain of orphans by bringing them into your loving home have no leg to stand on. So other than John's sister and all of those who have adopted a child...WHY do you feel you have any right CONDEMNING someone who is pro-choice (ie, Obama) if you have done NOTHING to alleviate the problem?

I would like to say that for 6 years Republicans controlled the White House and the House of Representatives and Senate and they NEVER passed ANY legislation to address prolife issues... NONE. Also it seems to me that there are MORE people in America who have no stomach for embracing this issue head on. There is an alarming rate of infant mortality in Memphis... Where are all of the prolife people? Are they helping? Young mothers who are not aborting their babies but because of poverty and lack of education they are losing their bables... Where is the hue and cry in Tennessee? I am a christian but I also know my position as a christian has to be wholistic. I cant picket abortion clinics and NOT help out mothers who do not abort. I bet you a great many prolife believers would NOT set foot in inner city Memphis to help for all the babies in the world.... Why would I say that? Because it has not happened... Link


http://www.commercialappeal.com/mca/local/article/0,2845,MCA_25340_4757196,00.html

and

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/21655131/

Nancy, which John are you referring to, McCain?

It sounds like you haven't been reading along here much. That's ok, it's just that I and many of us (either posting comments, or posts, or just lurking silently, afraid to speak up) are post-abortive and have come to regret it, or have been adoptive parents, or have donated money and time and help to women experiencing crisis pregnancies who didn't want to have abortions but had no other way out, and we've done this for years, without the govt making us do it and without the govt giving us a single dollar. Our blog and its readers over the years are just one example of this, as I wrote a little about here, http://www.prolifeblogs.com/articles/archives/2008/10/what_made_you_r.php

We have alleviated the problem for many, many women and families.

Lastly...no serious person here is condemning Obama or any person for being prochoice. We are however condemning the belief in and support for abortion.

I'd hope sincerely that you would not continue to condemn US by assuming that none of us have ever helped ease the pain of orphans, or women in need, or other human beings, just because we're against killing the most vulnerable human beings before they even get a chance to be born. Please, don't be fooled by what the mainstream media tells you about prolife folks. We who really give a damn about the women and families, not just the unborn, NEVER get any press, and thus good folks like you think we are all cold-hearted, judgmental idiots.

We're not.

John, you have a really legitimate question. Of these 10 crisis pregnancy centers operating in the Memphis area right now, there's only 1 in the city itself. Those many prolife folks, at least, are there in the area, trying to help the women who don't want to abort, and their families. I don't know why there aren't more in the city proper.

I do know that's not a complete list. I know this because when I look at New York City, there are other such places that aren't listed. This is part of the problem: it's all grassroots-organized, not supported by or paid for with any taxpayer dollars, unlike Planned Parenthood which gets hundreds of millions of our money.

If society were willing to help us help others, that would change. But our society isn't willing to do that.

As for the infant mortality rate there, that is awful. It's a horrible statement on the level of healthcare there, and perhaps the failure of those voted into office to provide proper services. I wish I had an easy answer.




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LifeNews Aug 29, 2014, 6:43 pm
LifeNews Aug 29, 2014, 6:13 pm
FREEDOM EDEN Dec 31, 1969, 7:00 pm
CNSNews.com Headlines Aug 29, 2014, 4:31 am
Alex Schadenberg Aug 29, 2014, 6:47 pm
Vivificat! Aug 29, 2014, 6:10 pm
NoisyRoom.net Aug 29, 2014, 6:05 pm
NoisyRoom.net Aug 29, 2014, 6:15 pm
LifeNews Aug 29, 2014, 5:14 pm
DFW Catholic.org Aug 29, 2014, 4:13 pm
CNSNews.com Headlines Aug 29, 2014, 5:35 pm
Vivificat! Aug 29, 2014, 5:27 pm
Pro Life in TN Aug 29, 2014, 5:10 pm
NoisyRoom.net Aug 29, 2014, 5:24 pm
NoisyRoom.net Aug 29, 2014, 5:28 pm
LifeNews Aug 29, 2014, 4:50 pm
LifeNews Aug 29, 2014, 4:30 pm
Hyscience Aug 29, 2014, 5:11 pm
Hyscience Aug 29, 2014, 5:51 pm
The Black Kettle Aug 29, 2014, 4:48 pm
LifeNews Aug 29, 2014, 3:50 pm
LifeNews Aug 29, 2014, 3:34 pm
LifeNews Aug 29, 2014, 3:02 pm
jillstanek.com Aug 29, 2014, 3:30 pm
DFW Catholic.org Aug 29, 2014, 1:52 pm
DFW Catholic.org Aug 29, 2014, 2:15 pm
NoisyRoom.net Aug 29, 2014, 3:10 pm
DFW Catholic.org Aug 29, 2014, 10:14 am
DFW Catholic.org Aug 28, 2014, 8:00 pm
DFW Catholic.org Aug 29, 2014, 10:16 am
DFW Catholic.org Aug 29, 2014, 10:13 am
DFW Catholic.org Aug 29, 2014, 2:02 pm
DFW Catholic.org Aug 29, 2014, 1:55 pm